There has been a lot of talk in the press in recent months about the prospects of a double dip recession. Britain’s economic recovery has been sluggish at best, and some experts are predicting that we’ll slide back into recession before the end of the year. Unfortunately, the same experts find it remarkably difficult to predict what will happen, as double dip recessions are few and far between.
So what can we predict for the housing market if a double dip were to occur? There’s really very little good news, unless you happen to have a lot of cash at your disposal and can profit from a likely drop in house prices.
The bad news, however, mounts up rather quickly. In difficult economic times central banks look to slash rates, but we’ve already done that so there’s not much further to go. This means that banks will look to secure capital from other places, and as household finances become less secure, the cost of borrowing mortgages will probably go up.
So far, mortgages are currently at record lows, thanks to a combination of intense competition between relative newcomer Santander and the other big banks, and the low central base rate. A quick look at a calculator for mortgages, however, will show you that small rate increases can lead to big increases in the size of regular payments, so any increase in the cost of mortgages could be damaging.
Next up, house prices will probably slide further, bad news for homeowners who could face even bigger equity nightmares. Recessions have a double effect, first, more people can no longer afford to pay their mortgages and so face repossession. This then means that banks try to make a quick profit and are prepared to sell houses for low prices, pulling the overall market down.
Accompanying this is a lack of demand in the market as customers can’t afford, or can’t borrow the money to move house. This again pulls house prices down and forms something of a vicious cycle.
All rather grim, and to make things worse, many experts believe that the British housing market is still rather inflated despite recent drops in prices. That’s not to say that it’s another bubble set to burst, but that there is space for prices to fall further.
So, clearly, a double dip recession would be bad news for the majority of homeowners, but perhaps there are silver linings for people trying to get onto the property ladder for the first time, and prospective investors. For the vast majority of people, though, a double dip recession would be extremely bad news.
Unfortunately, there’s not a lot you can do to protect yourself against the effects of a fall in house prices, however, there are lots of free, cheap things that you can do to increase the value of your home (giving you more equity) – and decrease the amount you spend on things like energy and insurance. Check out the Energy Saving Trust website for a good place to start.










